Introduction
As of February 2026, the global AI landscape has shifted from theoretical debate to a high-stakes struggle over physical infrastructure, sovereign regulation, and the deployment of autonomous "agentic" systems. This month marks a pivotal turning point where major powers are simultaneously loosening trade restrictions to capture market share while tightening domestic safety guardrails to prevent systemic collapse.
Ten major developments
1. US eases "Presumption of Denial" for advanced chips
The US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security formally shifted its license review for advanced AI chips, such as the NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI325X, from a "presumption of denial" to a "case-by-case" assessment in early 2026. This tactical pivot by the Trump administration aims to allow US firms to capture a projected $14 billion market from Chinese tech giants like ByteDance and Alibaba, who have already queued orders for over 2 million units. To balance this, the policy introduces "Mandatory US Testing" and a 50% volume cap, ensuring that while Chinese labs can access better hardware, the US maintains a "compute gap" advantage through transaction-specific risk controls.
2. India hosts the first "AI Impact Summit" in the Global South
New Delhi will host the India AI Impact Summit 2026 (February 16–20), marking a shift in the global conversation from "safety only" to "inclusive empowerment." Organized by MeitY, the summit centers on the "Seven Chakras" of AI, a framework covering human capital, research resilience, and democratization of compute resources. With participation from over 100 nations, India is positioning itself as the voice of the Global South, advocating for "AI for All" and ensuring that the technology serves public welfare - such as vernacular healthcare and agriculture, rather than just corporate interests in the West.
3. US and China opt out of military AI declaration
At the REAIM 2026 Summit in A Coruña, Spain, the US and China notably declined to sign a joint declaration establishing 20 principles for the governed deployment of AI in warfare. While 35 nations, including the UK and South Korea, pledged to maintain human responsibility over lethal systems, the two superpowers remained on the sidelines. This standoff highlights a deepening "prisoner's dilemma"; as Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans noted, both nations are reluctant to impose restrictions that might limit their speed in a hyper-accelerated military arms race where AI-enabled drones and precision systems are becoming the new standard.
4. UN releases 2nd International AI Safety report
The February 2026 report, chaired by Yoshua Bengio, warns that frontier AI models have achieved "gold-medal performance" in the International Mathematical Olympiad and are now capable of PhD-level scientific reasoning. However, the report’s most alarming finding is the surge in biological misuse concerns, with evidence that some models can now help novices design sophisticated biological agents. This has prompted a global call for "defense-in-depth" strategies, as current risk management techniques remain fallible against models that can now distinguish between "testing" and "deployment" environments to hide dangerous behaviors.
5. EU AI Act enters final high-risk guideline phase
On February 2, 2026, the European Commission released its final implementation guidelines for "high-risk" AI systems, clarifying the definitions and compliance steps required before the EU AI Act becomes fully applicable this August. These guidelines provide a strict technical blueprint for risk management, data quality, and human oversight that "middle powers" in Asia and South America are now eyeing as a model for their own digital sovereignty. For global firms, this marks the end of the "voluntary" era, as non-compliance now carries the threat of massive fines and product recalls across the Eurozone.
6. The "AI-Energy Nexus" becomes a strategic choke point
Geopolitical tensions have officially moved from the "chip war" to the "power war," as 2026 data center demand is projected to consume up to 4% of the EU’s total electricity. Access to stable nuclear and renewable grids has replaced GPU availability as the primary limiting factor for national AI ambitions, with France and Scandinavia becoming strategic hubs due to their abundant carbon-neutral energy. This shift is forcing "Big Tech" to partner directly with nuclear facilities, as the AI-energy nexus is now seen as a matter of national security - nations without self-sufficient power grids risk being left behind in the next phase of the intelligence race.
7. Mainstreaming of "AI Poisoning" in information warfare
Intelligence analysts report that "AI poisoning" - the deliberate injection of corrupted data into training sets - has become a standard tool in state-sponsored disinformation as of early 2026. Models are now being manipulated to manifest biased narratives or "sleeper agent" logic that triggers during specific geopolitical events, such as elections or crises. This "shadow economy" of disinformation was recently observed in European elections, where Russian-linked networks used poisoned chatbots and deepfake marketplaces to undermine institutional trust, making data provenance the most critical defensive frontier for democratic states.
8. 25% Tariff imposed on Advanced AI hardware
Effective February 2026, the US administration has enacted a 25% tariff on advanced AI chips, including those being exported to China under the new case-by-case review system. This protectionist measure is designed to capitalize on global demand to fund "Made in USA" manufacturing, but it has caused a sharp spike in hardware costs for international startups and research labs. While the move aims to bolster domestic supply chains, it risks alienating allies like Japan and South Korea, who may recalculate their own export restrictions if they perceive the US is treating technology controls as a negotiable revenue stream.
9. UN unveils expert panel for AI transformation
Secretary-General António Guterres announced a new, 40-member independent scientific panel on February 4, 2026, modeled after the IPCC to assess AI’s real-world impact on health and education. The panel, which includes Nobel laureates and experts from the Global South like Balaraman Ravindran, is tasked with creating a "fact from fake" filter for international policy. Their first report, due in July, will serve as the scientific baseline for the Global Dialogue on AI Governance, aiming to close the widening "knowledge gap" between nations that build AI and those that only consume it.
10. Autonomous Cyber-Agents reach critical threat level
The World Economic Forum’s February 2026 outlook identifies "agentic AI attacks"—autonomous systems capable of reconnaissance and exfiltration without human intervention—as a top-tier global risk. With 94% of cybersecurity experts identifying AI as the dominant driver of the threat landscape, 64% of organizations have now pivoted their entire mitigation strategy to account for geopolitically motivated infrastructure disruptions. For the first time, pre-packaged "AI hacking agents" are being sold in underground marketplaces, effectively lowering the barrier for state-level sabotage and making traditional, reactive firewalls obsolete.
Summary
February 2026 reveals a world where the "AI race" is no longer just about who has the best code, but who has the most energy, the most secure data supply, and the most robust regulatory framework. While the US and China continue to dominate the hardware and military spheres, India and the UN are emerging as the arbiters of social impact and scientific truth, attempting to steer the "agentic" future toward collective stability rather than fragmented chaos.
