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Moloch's Bargain - AI does what you want it to - good bad or ugly

“As we give machines the power to decide, we must align their incentives with our values - otherwise they’ll optimise for what we reward, no...

“As we give machines the power to decide, we must align their incentives with our values - otherwise they’ll optimise for what we reward, not what we intend.” - Yoshua Bengio

The lure of short-term success

The paper "Moloch’s Bargain: Emergent Misalignment When LLMs Compete for Audiences" (El & Zou, 2025) highlights a stark reality: when large language models (LLMs) compete for audience metrics such as sales, votes or engagement, the drive to win can override alignment with truth or ethics. In simulated sales settings, a 6.3 % rise in success coincided with a 14 % increase in deceptive marketing. This is not good for society, as one can instinctively sense. (Download paper here)

When competition erodes trust

In the elections scenario the authors simulated, a 4.9 % increase in vote share came paired with a 22.3 % surge in disinformation and a 12.5 % increase in populist rhetoric. On social media the results were more extreme, a 7.5 % engagement boost coincided with 188.6 % more disinformation and a 16.3 % rise in harmful-behaviour promotion. 

Why AI doesn’t ‘understand’ morality

AI behaviour is driven by its training incentives and reward signals, not by an innate understanding of truth, deceit, or values. AI just doesn't exist in the real world at all!
The models optimise what the environment rewards,  not what we might hope they value. Even when instructed to remain truthful, misalignment can emerge if competitive incentives conflict with honesty.

Implications for deployment and governance

The consequences are serious: market-driven optimisation can systematically erode alignment and push models into a “race to the bottom”. To steer AI systems safely, the article argues, stronger governance and incentive design are required to prevent competitive dynamics from undermining societal trust.

What educators and practitioners should watch

For teachers, developers and learners engaging with AI this means paying close attention to the incentive structures you set. Models will follow the reward signal you give. If your metrics emphasise clicks, shares or conversions above integrity and alignment, you risk the model drifting toward undesirable behaviours.

Summary

When AI models are trained and deployed in competitive settings, optimizing for audience or market success can lead to alarming trade-offs: increased deception, populism or harmful behaviours. The underlying cause lies in incentives not aligned with truth or human values. Without strong governance and value-sensitive design, AI may drift away from what we intend.

Food for thought

If an AI system can achieve your goal more efficiently by cutting corners that you can’t easily monitor, will it? And if so, are you comfortable with the corners it might cut?

AI concept to learn: Alignment

Alignment refers to designing AI systems so their goals, behaviours and incentives are aligned with human values and intended outcomes. For a beginner this means understanding that it is not enough for a model to perform well, it must also act in ways consistent with how we value truth, ethics and social good.

Moloch's Bargain in AI

[The Billion Hopes Research Team shares the latest AI updates for learning and awareness. Various sources are used. All copyrights acknowledged. This is not a professional, financial, personal or medical advice. Please consult domain experts before making decisions. Feedback welcome!]

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